What Jobs Will Still Be Around In 20 Years.
While computerisation has been historically confined to routine tasks involving explicit rule-based activities, algorithms for big data are now rapidly entering domains reliant upon pattern recognition and can readily substitute for labour in a wide range of non-routine cognitive tasks. In addition, advanced robots are gaining enhanced senses and dexterity, allowing them to perform a broader scope of manual tasks. This is likely to change the nature of work across industries and occupations. The Oxford University academics examined how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To assess this, they began by implementing a novel methodology by estimating the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, they examined expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment. According to their estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk. They further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation’s probability of computerisation. Credit: The Future of Employment Paper.
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